Hillsboro, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

530
FXUS63 KFGF 141812
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
112 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms late this
  afternoon and evening. Hazards could include large hail up to
  the size of tennis balls, damaging wind gusts up to 70mph, and
  isolated tornadoes.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Friday
  afternoon within southeast North Dakota into west- central
  Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...Synopsis...

The upper air flow pattern will be characterized by zonal flow
for the first few days of the period, transitioning it large
scale ridging by the end of the weekend. This will allow for
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend, with the greatest risk this afternoon, particularly for
severe thunderstorms.

Signals for late next week show at least some breakdown of the
upper ridge which would bring the chance for additional showers
and thunderstorms, some potentially strong to severe. Time of
year and distance from the predictability horizon precludes any
potential details at this time.

...SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

Surface analysis at 18z indicates a surface low over central
Manitoba with a pressure trough stretching down through the
Devils Lake and James River basins. A tight theta-e gradient
sits behind the trough, which is likely going to be the focal
point for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

Capping is likely to limit convective potential, but soundings
right now from the RAP13 indicate a loaded gun with an
absolutely unstable elevated mixed layer. It seems likely that
at least some convection is going to form this afternoon, the
main question is what is the scope.

Should storms form, they will likely become supercells capable
of significant hail exceeding two inches. Straight hodographs
aloft also favor some potential splitting storms which could
inhibit hail production pushing towards higher bounds, but that
will depend on the scope of convective coverage. With the very
high DCAPE, severe wind is possible with any RFD punches.
Tornado potential should be heavily mitigated by low wet bulb
temperatures and high DCAPE. Having said that, surface vorticity
does exist so tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Storms should
diminish after sunset for the most part thanks to the strongest
forcing being near the surface, however the existence of a
residual EML could potentially create brief additional
convection overnight. The probability for this is low as the
low-level jet is displaced to the east, but it cannot be ruled
out for some elevated hail potential overnight from a cold front
aloft that provides just enough nudge.

...SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW...

As the front sags southward overnight, dewpoints will continue
to linger behind the front, around the 60s and 70s. This means
instability will stick around in the southern half of our CWA,
however forcing is very limited so confidence is low on
potential convection tomorrow afternoon. If thunderstorms form,
the general threat at this time should be 60-70 mph winds with
1.5 inch hail. Shear is much more limited as the main jet will
constrain to Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Periodic MVFR conditions will linger this afternoon across
northwest Minnesota and northeast North Dakota, but VFR
conditions should prevail for the most part thereafter. A front
will push through the region this afternoon bringing the chance
for showers and thunderstorms, potentially capable of 50-60 knot
wind gusts and hail. Confidence in coverage is low but the
greatest chances for thunderstorms will be GFK and TVF late this
afternoon.

As the front pushes through overnight, winds will shift to the
northwest. MVFR to IFR ceilings may develop around BJI after 06z
as well.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Perroux